TPC Wine Guy: Is Wine an Investment?
We all know (well, I think we all know) that wine’s a great drink. But
is it also a great investment? Traveling from club to club this was a
question I was asked at almost every TPC last year, and I have to
confess, at the time I really didn’t know the answer.
But then I’m a wine drinker, not a collector. It’s a kind of article of
faith among wine writers that we must never suggest that wine might be
worth buying solely for the purpose of selling on. Even so, if it really
is a good investment, why not? Maybe you can just sell a bit of your
investment and make the rest pay for itself?
Because plenty of people are getting seriously excited about wine as an
investment. In the US the value of wine sold at auction rose from $66m
in 2003 to $190m by the end of 2007. And from early 2004 to mid 2007 the
average value of fine wine (measured by Wine Spectator magazine) rose
79%. Compare that with the 29% rise in the Dow Jones over that time and
you can see why people are getting keyed up. In fact, 2007 was a
particularly juicy year for wine investment. Last year the Liv-ex 100 (a
wine investment index) recorded growth of 39%, outstripping almost all
comparable investment classes. One of the wines within that index –
Chateau Lafite – almost doubled in value.
Incredibly, some people are even arguing that these gains still don’t
quite reflect how well wine does as an investment. James Fogarty of the
American Association of Wine Economists (seriously, it exists) recently
published a paper arguing that we underestimate the value of wine as an
investment. Although the costs of trading and storing wine are very
high, gains on a wine portfolio are very rarely taxed so that on average
they tend to return more of their total gross gains than either equities
or bonds. Also many ‘share index vs. wine index’ comparisons don’t take
into account the fact that investors only ever invest in the very best,
most bankable wines, whereas they drink up the poorer vintages that drag
down the overall figures. Fogarty also looks into the complex world of
Modern Portfolio Theory, showing that even if wine has lower returns and
higher risks than shares, historically its properties mean it can still
improve the portfolio of an investor with a good spread of investments.
If that kind of thing tickles your interest you may be interested in a
book with one of the unlikeliest titles: ‘Wine Investment for Portfolio
Diversification’. Author Mahesh Kumar says ‘I'm not suggesting you don't
invest in stocks, bonds or real estate,’ but argues that ‘having wine in
there can increase the overall expected return of the portfolio, and
reduce overall risk of the portfolio.’ This is because of the very
attractive ‘Sharpe ratio’ of wine investments and the fact that wine
prices very rarely move in tandem with the prices of shares, bonds or
property. So that those invested in both enjoy something of a
mathematical ‘free-lunch’ on the portfolio as a whole.
But a word of warning. The old line ‘the value of your investments can
go down as well as up’ is especially true here. This is the wild west of
investment and whilst the maths shows some great investment performances
from wine for the last 20 years, it’s far from assured that they’ll
remain the same for the next 20. And in several markets these
investments have attracted fraudsters. www.investdrinks.org is a website
detailing a litany of lost deposits and empty pockets of those who
invested in dodgy schemes over the years.
My tips?
- This is a fun investment that you’d be as happy to drink as to sell
- Make sure your 401-K and mortgage are fully sorted first
- Buy the wine yourself and store it in a professional wine storage facility or temperature controlled cabinet in its original (unopened) cases
- Look to buy wine at auction, especially if you can find good deals
- Do your research with magazines like Wine Spectator and Decanter
And if you like, you can always get in touch with me through your TPC
and I’ll be happy to give you a little advice on the way.
Happy wine buying,
Joe Fattorini
TPC Wine Guy